According to the latest research report released by the European Union Telegraph Finance Report after the report, the pressure on the correction of the operation fundamentals of the United Telegraph is increasing, and it is expected that it will be in the fourth quarter of this year (2018) with the expectation that the performance outlook of the fourth quarter of the United Telegraph Financial Report is less than expected and that the supply will exceed demand due to the opening of new capacity in the market next year. In the first quarter of Ming (2019), the company was facing an operating loss and lowered its forecast earnings per share from 2018 to 2020 to maintain its "sell" rating. The target price was slightly revised down to 11.5 yuan.
The outlook released in the report, including a 4% to 5% drop in wafer shipments and a 4% to 5% drop in the average dollar price, implies that the company's fourth-quarter revenue may be reduced by 8-10%, less than the 6% cut in the organization's original forecast, and that its gross margin for the current quarter will also be lower. Slip, the agency's internal estimates fell to about 14.2%, while the 28-nanometer process delivery capacity has also slowed down; it is expected to face operating losses in the fourth quarter of this year (2018) and the first quarter of next year (2019).
The report further pointed out that Unicom and other secondary wafer substitutes are expected to continue to suffer from downward operating pressure on capacity utilization and profit margins in 2009, mainly due to the lack of breakthroughs in advanced processes, slowing consumer/automotive/PC demand, fears of oversupply of 28nm processes from 2019 to 2020, and increased demand. Tight money ASIC customers shift from 28 nm /14 nano process to TSMC 7 nm process and other operational challenges. As a result, the forecast earnings per share for the period from 2018 to 2020 were reduced by 0.4%, 7% and 6%, respectively. The earnings per share were sequentially reduced to 0.65 yuan, 0.56 yuan and 0.63 yuan, and the target price was lowered from 12 yuan to 11.5 yuan, and the selling rating was maintained.
Eurosystem foreign investment pointed out that by 2019, 28 nanometer oversupply is expected to lead to a more significant downward trend in capacity utilization and profit margins. It is expected that the utilization rate of 28 nanometer capacity will fall between 70% and 80%, and the gross profit rate of the process will remain below 10%. This will lead to a 28 nanometer profit margin of - 3% to - 5% next year. The reasons include Customers turn to TSMC's 16 nanometer/12 nanometer process, TSMC's 22 nanometer performance/power and PPA are better; SMIC takes a positive offer for oversupply of 28 nanometers, as well as the lack of 28 nanometer/22 nanometer CMOS sensors, power management IC (PMIC) and embedded NAND flash dedicated processes.